Liu, who advises manufacturing companies in the city of Chongqing, in Southwest China, says that the government's industrial upgrading policies are urgently needed. He estimates that Chinese manufacturers are 10 years behind US companies in implementing ERP. Small and medium-sized manufacturers, especially, don't have the money or expertise to implement these systems.

"Ten years ago, it was easy to make money, so the companies did not feel any pressure. Now they are suffering, but they don't know how to reduce costs. They move from Guangdong to central China to western China to Vietnam, but they don't know how to reduce costs. They leave money on the table," Liu says.

Zhai says that some sectors are behind, but others, especially large companies, are advancing. She notes that Gold wind, the No 3 wind power manufacturer in the world, is currently reworking its ERP software and business processes.

"The problem is not about whether they can afford it, or whether they can decide to implement it, or how to use it. It's more about how to connect the information, how to manage and use the information. Everybody is talking about big data now, but we need to think about small data. Some Chinese companies don't have a clear vision of how to build the information structure to support their decision-making," she says.

However, some Chinese companies have used enterprise resource planning to improve their business sharply. For example, Dongeejiao Group, a leading manufacturer of traditional Chinese medicine, increased its revenue by 67 percent one year after implementing an ERP system, according to a research study by Liang Huigang of Florida Atlantic University and his co-authors.

According to ChenJia, former president of Dongeejiao, "Some thought the probability of successfully implementing ERP in China was zero. This statement is inaccurate. The case of Dongeejiao can serve as proof."

Worldwide, the German company SAP now has 70 percent of the market for ERP software, and US-based Oracle sells another 20 percent. In China, however, SAP and Oracle together control only 21 percent of the market, as they are challenged by domestic products from Yonyou, Indpur, Kingdee and others, according to Macquarie Research. Furthermore, Chinese purchases of management software have grown by more than 15 percent each year since 2013, while worldwide sales have seen about 3 percent growth.

Many Chinese companies started out as manufacturers for Western brands. Zhai stresses that many are continuously upgrading to higher value-added work.

"They continuously upgrade their technology step-by-step to see what cuts costs and increases efficiency," she says. "The big players are already extending their activities along the value chain. For example, the garment industry goes to designing, then procurement for all kinds of materials, then distribution and branding. They can help the brand owners realize their concept design, realize a prototype."

Financing the upgrade

Recognizing that industrial upgrading is key to the future economy, the government is putting big money behind its policies, but it's also striving to ensure a high level of market input.

In August, the government announced the creation of a $30 billion ( 26.7 billion euros; ￡23.3 billion) equivalent venture fund especially targeted to boost industrial technology. Somewhat smaller funds have more specific targets.

According to the research company Merics, the Advanced Manufacturing Fund will insert capital worth $3 billion into industrial technology upgrading. The National Integrated Circuit Fund has $20 billion and the Emerging Industries Investment Fund holds almost $6 billion.

In addition, local and provincial governments will set up funds to support industrial upgrading in their regions. By comparison, the German government is devoting only $225 million, and German companies plan to spend about $12 billion over the next decade on the so-called Industry 4.0 upgrading, according to Experton Group, a business consultancy.

The government funds seek to guide market investors, not to provide majority state funding. According to Chen Shaozhi, a senior journalist who heads the Made in China 2025 team at Xinhua News Agency's Economy and Nation Weekly: "The government may lead the industrialization fund, but it is very commercialized. The government puts in a little money. Then the banks, investment companies and venture capital funds all can invest together.

"This type of guidance is similar to the way the government has encouraged private investment in high-tech Silicon Valley-like areas such as Zhongguancun in Beijing. The main goal in traditional manufacturing is to help the entrepreneur make money and survive in the market."

Policy and leadership

"Everyone, government officials and businesspeople, understand that industry has to upgrade. If you don't upgrade, you will be expelled from the market. If you upgrade, it may bring some hurt. But, if you don't upgrade, the only question is whether you die early or die late," Chen says.

So, how does China plan to ensure the country succeeds in this critical upgrading period?

Justin Lin Yifu, director of the Center for the New Structural Economics at Peking University, in a recent article in the Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, outlines the theoretical rationale for China's industrial policy:

"The middle-income trap is a result of a middle-income country's failure to have faster labor productivity growth through technological innovation and industrial upgrading than high-income countries. Industrial policy is essential for the government of a middle-income country to prioritize the use of its limited resources to facilitate technological innovation and industrial upgrading."

Similarly, Zhai, of Peking University, argues that government leadership is essential to China's upgrading.

"Government-led strategy is the most effective way. That's why the government set up 10 key sectors (One Plus X) for Made in China 2025," she says. "We don't need to succeed in each and every sector, but if we take the lead position in several of them, we win, right?"

She concludes: "Why I'm optimistic is mainly because the government has the dedication to pull up the entire sector. They know which direction to go. The government is not just planning domestically, but also globally."

davidblair@chinadaily.com.cn